A child is playing a card game where, if she does not
have a red card in her hand, she must draw cards from
the deck, and keep the cards she draws, until she
draws a red card.
is it appropriate to use the geometric distribution to
calculate probabilities in this situation?
o yes, the geometric distribution is appropriate.
o no, since each trial is not independent of the other
trials
o no, because it is not looking for the first occurrence
of success.
o no, since a success and failure on each trial cannot
be defined

Respuesta :

The probability of choosing the red card will be 0.03%

What is probability?

In this situation, Mickey should have drawn the first 7 cards that are not diamond and then on the 8th attempt she should draw an ace.

Let A be the event of drawing 7 cards which are not diamond and B the event of drawing an ace card. therefore the required probability is

P(A∩B)=P(A)*P(B)

Now, there are 13 diamonds and 39 other cards. Hence,

P(A)=(13/39)⁷=0.1335

After drawing 7 non-diamond cards, the 8th card must be a diamond. Hence,

P(B)=0.25

Hence, P(A∩B)=P(A)*P(B)=0.1335*0.25=0.033(approximately 0.03,i.e. 3%)

Therefore the probability that Mickey will draw her first red diamond on the 8th attempt is 0.03%

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